Can one make deep inferences about a user based only on observations of how she interacts? This paper contributes a methodology for inverse modeling in HCI, where the goal is to estimate a cognitive model from limited behavioral data. Given substantial diversity in users' intentions, strategies and abilities, this is a difficult problem and previously unaddressed in HCI. We show advances following an approach that combines (1) computational rationality, to predict how a user adapts to a task when her capabilities are known, and (2) approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to estimate those capabilities. The benefit is that model parameters are conditioned on both prior knowledge and observations, which improves model validity and helps identify causes for observations. We demonstrate these benefits in a case of menu interaction where the method obtained accurate estimates of users' behavioral and cognitive features from selection time data only. Inverse modeling methods can advance theoretical HCI by bringing complex behavior within reach of modeling.
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